Company guiding for 25-30% revenue growth and 50-100bps margin improvement. I have conservatively taken 25% and 50bps in numbers below. Despite that PAT will increase 60% in FY24. See concall transcript https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/8a28897d-2bed-48bf-8943-2b0e60890245.pdf
In March 2022 APL Apollo bought 4.38% stake or 1 mn shares at Rs755. Company also took 1.4 mn warrants at Rs750 or 105 crs. Out of this 30% has come in and balance 70% or 73.5crs will come this year. When this comes all debt will get repaid and interest cost can potentially go to zero which is another 27 crs boost to FY24 profits of Rs101crs.See the link here
The stock at Rs700 is below that price. At Rs101 crs profits stock trades at 16x P/E with improving RoCE
| FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stores | 95 | 90 | 91 | 90 | |||
| Area | 4,47,904 | 4,34,412 | 4,58,412 | ||||
| Average | 4,715 | 4,827 | 5,037 | ||||
| Sales | 2,549 | 2,546 | 2,640 | 2,038 | 2,418 | 4,030 | 5,037 |
| Raw Material | -2,244 | -3,806 | |||||
| Contribution | 174 | 224 | |||||
| Margin % | 7.2% | 5.6% | |||||
| Employees | -41 | -48 | |||||
| Others | -45 | -51 | |||||
| EBITDA | 175 | 99 | 115 | 71 | 85 | 117 | 171 |
| Margin % | 6.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Depreciation | -14 | -15 | -25 | -24 | -17 | -16 | -17 |
| EBIT | 161 | 84 | 90 | 47 | 68 | 101 | 154 |
| Margin % | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Other Income | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Interest Cost | -46 | -47 | -43 | -33 | -24 | -24 | -27 |
| PBT | 116 | 46 | 52 | 20 | 47 | 85 | 135 |
| Tax | -42 | -13 | -12 | -6 | -13 | -22 | -35 |
| Rate | 36.2% | 28.3% | 23.1% | 30.0% | 27.8% | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| PAT | 74 | 33 | 40 | 14 | 34 | 63 | 101 |
| Growth | -55% | 21% | -65% | 143% | 85% | 60% | |
| OCF | 40 | 171 | -30 | 133 | 70 | 92 | |
| OCF/ PAT | 54% | 518% | -75% | 950% | 206% | 146% |
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