Tracking forward… hotel stocks moved up during the recent mid-cap small-cap rally… which is in tune with the fantastic Q4… but paper stocks especially market leaders like West Coast and JK Paper are yet to re-capture Aug-Sep 2022 peak raising questions if the cycle has peaked-out…
This Money Control article of early April probably explains the reasons behind price topping-out: huge supply is getting commissioned in Latin America & China which may flood the markets during the year…
In the recent Q4 concall of JK Paper, the management has been quite candid that the record 35-40% gross margins of FY23e are not repeatable… and prices in FY 24e are expected to be volatile…
HDFC in its sectoral report has mentioned that hotel sector is in a sweet spot as not much fresh supply is expected for another 18-24 months… demand outpacing supply, the latter not catching up for next 2-3 years… “The current phase seems to be very similar to the 2004-2008 era, which saw a strong uptrend in the hotel industry and which will last for another 3-4 years. The upcycle could normalise with moderation in demand and huge supply addition hitting the market post 2026-27”
caveat: what’s above merely notes of a novice investor trying to make sense of market through open source info
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