Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains!

I guess as opinioned by many learned boarder, 10 cent is rock solid floor for sugar prices in international market. This much downside is only possible because of sharp devaluation of brazillian currency against US dollar (from around 1.25 real per dollar to 4 real per dollar) due to various political mismanagement etc inside brazil which incidentally control more than 45 % sugar export and have disproportionate influence on global sugar prices. Else near term demand for sugar is highly inelastic and grows around 2-3 % annually at all times good or bad. Brazilian sugar operation most efficient globally is also in losses from last 2-3 years and it is not possible for them to produce sugar suistanably below 12 13 cent. India being largest consumer also has important influence on global sugar prices. This year severe drought in many part of country is likely to reduce sugarcane production and recovery very significantly for next 2-3 years. This year drought can only be compared with drought in 2008 and 2002 in recent times in its severity whose full effect is likely to be felt in coming months and sugarcane planting for next year may be even lower. With favorable expected scenarios it is very much possible for sugar to touch around 25 cent in international market and around 40-45 rs per kg in indian market, which if happens can lead to multibaggers return in most sugar stocks. This recent rally may be just beginning for the same.