Waaree Renewable Technologies (Quick analysis)
(Prepared incorporating the Q4FY23 concall discussions)
Key Investment Thesis and Outlook
- Huge megatrends – with support from govt
- Successfully installed 10000+ solar projects, with a total operating capacity of 600+ MW.
- Strong pickup in financials, since Mar 2022. Quarterly OPMs vary significantly from 10% to 48%; Future OPMs will range from 15% to 25%
- Cumulative orders done till date is only 600 + MW. In FY23, executed orders of 300 MW
- Have unexecuted orders of 870 MW, which are to be executed over 15 months (70% of these projects are excluding modules); They are bidding for projects of 3 GW and expect a 35-40% bid conversion. Hence, potential order intake is very high.
- 70% of orders are excluding modules (lower margins relative to projects with modules) – Cost is Rs 1.5 cr/MW. 30% of orders are including module in the contract (Cost is Rs 3.5/4 cr per MW)
- Govt has allowed delaying the adoption of ALMM on solar modules/cells (approved list of models and manufacturers) for 1 year. This is expected to benefit Waaree RenewableTechnologies
- FY24: Indicative revenue estimates by analysts suggests Rs 1000 cr revenue (from Rs 350 cr in FY23) with OPM ranging between 15-25% . Assuming worst case scenario of net profit margins of 10% ie Rs 100 cr profit ie nearly double FY23 profits.
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