Shilpa Medicare -Racing away on the Oncology API highway!

I wasn’t able to attend the Shilpa AGM this time due to personal preoccupations.
Thanks to Ankit & Ananth, now I can try to come upto speed quickly. Just to get the discussions rolling, here are my initial thoughts from an initial reading.

Key business drivers for the medium term

Positives
1. ICE Segment
Unlike earlier understanding (AGM 2014), Standalone ICE CRAMS revenues looks likely to continue/increase without declines. till FY17 at the least. FY15 this segment had contributed slightly more than half of standalone Sales. As shifting out entire production to JV is delayed (and consequent 50% revenue recognition), this segment contribution/growth looks secure?

1. Capacetabine API
   With a 4x increase in capacity underway, the main growth driver in the medium term seems to be Capacetabine? Even assuming a 33% decline in price, we are still looking at least a 2.5x jump in Volumes/Revenues in couple of years. Do we know the timeframes of utilisation of this expanded capacity, how much to expect in FY16 for example. I would think a 1.5x- 2x jump straightaway, as there is no time to lose in view of more players in formulations market – implying more opportunity for Shilpa?

This again seems to be a positive development from what we had understood in 2014 AGM. This should offset the effect of Gemcitabine decline in volumes and still provide for decent additional growth?

The global market of Capacitabine is about 100T if I remember correctly. I don’t have any idea of Shilpa’s Capacetabine volumes but they should be having upwards of 10% market share (the ambitions are to reach a 25% market share here eventually?) easily, we may like to try and put a figure to the annual sales contribution from this product??

1. Imatinib Mysalate API
   This is stated as the next big contributor after Capacitabine. This will start contributing from FY17 right? Again I may be mistaken, but I remember they were not so bullish about this at 2014 AGM, saying NATCO will be the main gainer, as they have sealed up relationships. And Shilpa had not invested much in augmenting capacities for the same. Again I see this as a positive development over AGM 2014.

2. Japanese CRAMS
   FY 17 50 Cr revenue visibility. The first good visibility sign of a promising future growth driver?? with enough signs of a scalable opportunity with multiple relationships in a market where others will take 5 more years to enter??

Negatives
1. Formulations
Unable to factor in anything significant till FY17, because approvals taking time till June 2016 or later?

What is the Management view on delayed approvals impact on formulations player contracts for major molecules in FY17 like Imatinib Mysalate – where they may not be able to service the opportunity/or a major part of the opportunity?

Did we ask if there have been any major customer switches due to delays?

Those who attended the 2015 AGM, please comment freely on my observations. What are the other major takeaways from the discussions?