The industry is expecting lower sugarcane production in next sugar season (likely impact of El-Nino, higher Temp across India). The production will get impacted at MH & Southern region which are rain fed, whereas UP being irrigated is unlikley to see any dip in production. With lower sugarcane availability,higher production of sugar/ethanol will be a challenge. Moreover the reduced production is unlikely to be compensated by higher price due to govt control on price of ethanol.( Govt may change ethanol price and can make production of sugar attractive to keep sugar prices under control).
May be this is the reason for lower PE assigned to EID
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