I think nobody can predict exactly when the market will crash.
As I said in my post – Just a few pointers as to when you may start accumulating cash instead of taking fresh positions in equity.
Yes, MCap to GDP is also useful to look at. But can’t be looked at in isolation, need to combine with other factors as highlighted above. Another point to consider maybe – net profit margin of Nifty companies. Historical analysis of profit margins will tell you they should revert to a mean if they are at historical highs because competition will never allow companies to garner huge/easy profits.
Another point to consider – as Krishnaraj has highlighted that these P/E numbers are not consolidated earnings number so the current number is actually below 20.
Technicals – Have very little knowledge and don’t trade. Absolutely no idea on Futures / Spot trade, etc.
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