Samir, you are right that it is risky bet with lots of if and but and most things depend upon future scenarios playing out both in local and global market. However one thing is quite clear that with this industry a big vote bank (more than 3-4 cr) is also related and any govt cannot afford to disappoint them for long. Indian sugar mills even if they are forced is not in position to pay to farmers in any case. So if current scenarios continue for next 1-2 years atleast half mills have to close down even in that scenarios sugar prices in india has to suit up with or without favorable policy outcomes as sugar demand is inelastic. Also it is highly illogical to force somebody to continue producing something even if he is not interested in producing. So probability of man made (govt in this case) or natural uptick in sugar prices is likely for next 2-3 years. Quantum of gain nobody can predict and we have to keep in mind that we are in bull market for last 2 years otherwise sugar stocks may be even lower than what was 2-3 months back.
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