I hope you all have come across these type of situations where the future outcomes and probabilities are unknown and unknowable and there is very little information of that event in past. It is like a black swan event – totally random and unpredictable. But, investors with special skills do get rewards from these UU situations in humungous way. Investors with heavy loss-aversion, exposed to hindsight criticism, speculators, arbitrageurs tend to stay away from these situations.
Main skills required for this type of investing is 1) Unusual judgement/complimentary skills, 2) Strategic Mind, 3) Long term outlook
Awareness of own biases mainly such as recollection bias, and overconfidence bias has a very important role and We must me willing to look fool and dumb, and of course lose some money which is inevitable
In this thread, I would like you guys to share and discuss your past experiences where you have navigated through those situations. The mental models you guys might have formed over the years.
Key questions: A) How to navigate investing in such situations
B) Key mental models
C) Portfolio allocation and how to scale your bet?
D) How to overcome our own biases?
Recent UU situations: – China tech crackdown, Russia-Ukraine war, Taiwan-China tension, US-China tension, Hyperinflation in Argentina and Turkey
Best UU investors :- Mohnish Pabrai, Buffett, Bill Miller, Li Lu, Howard Marks, Rajiv Jain
Key reads:- Investing under UU situations by prof Richard
Investing under UU by Motilal Oswal
Maxims of analytical thinking
Beat the dealer
Thank you!
I tried searching in older VP topics but couldn’t find any discussion on this one.
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