Here is a very rough attempt at solving this problem you have presented. I will try to refine it further when I am not so sleepy!
So the question is saving 20% income tax spread of 5 years of lock in period plus 5.25% every year in returns as opposed to say market returns of 10% per year (28% cumulative over 5 years) to 13% per year (47% cumulative over 5 years) in equities if you pick the right Mutual Funds or Stocks? Please note the cumulative tax rates are on the post tax amount.
20% you lose in tax by investing in equities or mutual funds can be recouped if you make 3.75% more every year for 5 years + 5.25% which turns out to be 9%. So I guess if you make more than 9% every year you should be able to beat the returns of the CGAS.
Here is my calculation. Kindly correct me if I am wrong:
In [7]: (1.10)**5
Out[7]: 1.6105100000000006
In [8]: (1.13) ** 5
Out[8]: 1.8424351792999991
In [9]: .80 * 1.6105
Out[9]: 1.2884000000000002
In [10]: 1.84 * .80
Out[10]: 1.4720000000000002
In [20]: (1.0375) ** 5
Out[20]: 1.2020998056030279
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