We have to see the risk reward at all times. At 0.9x book, the bank was undervalued. At 2.35x book with 12-13% (risky highly levered ROE) we have much better opportunities IMO. Entire SFB space looks very interesting. Ujjivan specifically has been doing 4% ROA with guide of 2.5-3% ROA/20% ROE normalized FY24 with 25-30% growth.
Those who are ok with a bit lower ROE but more secured book can evaluate equitas SFB which has ? 50% in secured.
Those that want to buy an SFB which is turning around& still available near book can evaluate suryoday SFB. In short we have ample opportunities & limited capital. VV’s C/I guide keeps becoming worse over time. Earlier it used to be 55% C/I in FY25. Now its 65% C/I. To me this limits intrinsic compounding of capital inside bank. Right now, bank can grow capital at 13-14% every year. For capital raise they are at mercy of perception of markets.
From my point of selling bank (mid december), bank has grown around 25%. But my portfolio has grown much much faster & i think quality of underlying companies is equally strong if not better. So, what is the problem
As late Mr Jhunjhunwala sir used to say
“Its a buffet. Eat what you like. Just dont overeat”
Disclaimer: Used to be invested, not invested, but tracking closely & wish nothing but great success for bank shareholders.
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