As mentioned a few posts earlier, value of any company is the present value of all free cash flows the company generates in its entire lifetime. Temporary short term events like this dont really matter so much for the intrinsic value of the company. Before the software extension, company was trading at around 8000 cr M.Cap. If you think that MCX will be able to get the new software up and running in the next 2 quarters, the total hit to cash flows incrementally from here on out is about 220 cr or about ~3% of the total MCap. In the meanwhile the stock is already down about 10%, so market is pricing in further slippages in timelines.
The more important data point in my opinion remains the daily traded volumes on the exchange which hit a new record high in June month. Core company performance except for the software transition issue remains very very healthy. In my opinion, Events like these seperate the short term traders from the investors.
Disclosure: Invested and biased.
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