M4: The Scam
Assume, on Sunday, you receive a stock market prediction news letter whose summary says Nifty50 will be UP Next week. Probably you will ignore it. But by Friday Nift50 actually moves Up. Next Sunday, again you receive prediction that says Nifty50 will be UP Next week. It happens by Friday. You are confused. Third week, Fourth week, you continue to receive the predictions (sometime UP & sometime Down) and Market follows the prediction magic. Fifth & Sixth week you are tempted to play based on newsletter prediction. At the end of Sixth week after six successful predictions, newsletter requests for subscription payment. Will you subscribe???
Here is the sample Scam. The newsletter publisher sends out 64,000 newsletters (emails/whatsapp/…), with prediction of Nift50 going UP in 32,000 letters and DOWN in other 32,000 letters. No matter what happens next week, his prediction is correct to 32,000 recipients. To ONLY these recipients he sends the next set of prediction, where 16,000 recipients get the prediction of Nift50 moving UP next week and other 16,000 the Down. Irrespective of what happens, 16,000 have received the correct prediction for two consecutive weeks. Out of that group, 8000 will receive Nifty50 UP prediction for the third week and Others Nifty50 Down prediction. This continues for Six weeks and their will be 1000 recipients with straight correct predictions for SIX weeks. If subscription fee is Rs 10K and even half of them adopt to the subscription, he ends up with half a Crore.
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