INOX Wind

@nandan_ganatra thanks for sharing.

I would like to share my view on wind. It is not very data backed, it is basically my opinion.

On Suzlon thread I have been covering wind from December 2022 so anybody who want to understand the complete industry I would recommend to go through it.

1. A Grid needs 24/7 electricity hence the DISCOM cannot completely shift to RE and they continue to use convectional energy with RE. Even solar during peak time (night time) is not able to provide grid stability hence hybrid is being introduced (wind+ solar) and also during monsoon solar is not able to work efficiently.

2. The long term solution to this is storage. If we have solar+ storage then that can solve this problem to some extent, but currently it is not viable because storage cost is too high, hence I have feel that wind is still relevant.

3. If we see the economics today solar cost is around 2 INR/kwh and wind is close to 3 INR/kwh (this will further increase because of removal of E reverse) so the DISCOM have to by wind RE at a premium of 50% to 70%. The cost of storage is expected to reduce in future and it is expected that solar + storage cost can be around 3.5 to 4 INR/kwh. when this happens I believe solar + storage would be preferred as neither wind would be cheaper nor more efficient.

   

4. The ISTS wavier will end in June 2025 and hence I believe most of the C&I (retail) segment would be in a hurry to complete before 2025 thereafter I expect the demand for this segment to also be negligible. To give perspective Suzlon’s 50% current order book is from retail.

5. Wind is 100% dependent on government. It is not self reliant and I believe reason government is supporting is till the time storage cost does not reduce they can add wind so that they reach their targets in RE. Once solar+ wind is viable I think they would focus more on solar.

All the things above is just my view and I can be wrong but I believe next 1.5/2 yrs is very positive for wind but I am not a long term investor here just want to make quick money. I feel in long term the survival of this industry is questionable

DIsc- exiting suzlon, invested in inox