I am presenting my views in brief in terms of Thesis and Antithesis pointers here. This views are for short terms over period of half year or so.
Thesis:- 1) Management’s statement that 25% of revlimid in Q4 booked remaining to be booked majorly in Q1 &Q2 2)Low relative valuation 3) Increase in revlimid volume till march 2025 (Earnings likely to improve over two year horizon) 4)Revlimid’s volumes more than 2* than from last year (Estimate drawn from numbers and management commentary)
Antithesis:- 1) Biggest antithesis here is lack of liquidity in Pharma sector e.g. Dr. reddy’s earnings have grown 100%+ YoY but there is no stock performance (biggest antithesis here, however the bull market rallies in later stages generally get into sectors that do not have liquidity) 2) high base formed in last year 3)Delay in US launches, increased competition in gRevlimid 5) interest cycle and its impact on market 6)circle of ignorance 7) revlimid pricing environment 8) Overhead supply(Technical antithesis) 9) Numbers not reflecting narrative 10)seven settled para IV filer ICICI expecting 75% of price erosion in FY23 itself 11)Market thinks revlimid is one off not likely to repeat 12) More settlements meaning more entrants in revlimid space
Liquidity is the most important antithesis here in my opinion. Any other opinion is welcome.
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