It is as if I am talking to my cousin, and many others who think that 30% is enough. Reason is fear, based on the adage, ‘one in hand is worth two in the bush’. It is based on the fear that if you do not cook the bird in hand immediately, it may also fly away. But if you stop to consider, the stock investing is about two in the bush.
I am not saying you should forget the one in the hand, but how do you grow if you are satisfied with one in hand?
Of course, you do not quit if the one in the bush is a hen, laying golden all the time.
While it is right that every share is not Pidilite, but when you sell Pidilite, you don’t sell it just because it has made you 30%, but because either it has ceased to make you 30%, or you have found another one that makes 50%.
Of course, this theory also has its flaws. The stock that you may sell may be sleeping like Kumbhakarn, but the moment you sell it, it starts slaying the market. That is where the supporters of the theory that you stay with a good company through thick and thin, come in.
The main problem we ‘buy and stay with it’ theorists face is of FOMO, when the sector which we were patronising goes into a slump, and suddenly (often not so suddenly, it only seems so to us) another sector starts racing ahead.
One example is of the somnambulating companies in defence, Public sector banks, and the infra companies that woke up and made 20 to 100% for the investors.
Honestly I never believed in the public sector sloths. You just see how the PSU banks function, and you will appreciate the point. I have seen the corruption in the public sector close hand. And the infra companies? They function on black economy.
But one has seen them racing ahead.
Another conundrum one faces is of mismatch between the financials and the growth of a company. The company with a PE of 8.5 and ROE/ROCE of 56% stagnates, while the company with PE of 56 and ROE/ROCE of 8.5% keeps making profits for its investors.
Feeling defeated by the failure of our theories, I have decided to buy some companies which are getting lots of orders. Also, I have tried to buy some company which is not doing so well, but its sector is thriving. The tyre shares rose fast, but PCBL the company that makes carbon black for them was languishing.
So, to sum up, I would sell a share only if there is an identifiable better opportunity, not just because it has made me 30%.
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