Rough Calculation on Piramal Pharma Valuation: (All based on my assumptions)
Piramal Pharma ( SOTP Valuation) – Fair Value: 130
CDMO: 4000cr (55% Generic)
GENERIC: 600cr= O value ( worst)
CMO: 1600 *1 = 1600cr ( Lumpy business)
Innovator CDMO: 1800 *10 = price to Sales = 5 to 8 price to Sales = 1.5 Billion dollars ( best business)
Complex Generic:2200cr= *3-4 = 1billion ( Good profit)
Consumer Healthcare:800cr* 5 = 4000CR ( not profitable)
CMP: 100
No of shares: 119
Raising 1000cr : expected 12cr extra shares
Current EV : 17.5k crores after dilution (Net debt)
Total share: 130cr shares
Capex: Fy23 major Capex done Growth (1000cr)
Capex: Fy24 ( rough 700cr )
Valuation based on Ev/Ebitda – Blended basis 15
1200cr – 15multiple. – 18k company
1200cr – 20 multiple – 25k company
Avoiding EPS Calculation: It will go on toss. (Depreciation very high + equity shares loaded)
Will update once we get exact dilution numbers.
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