The fact is that there are many pieces of evidence which make me feel confident about successful delisting:
(1) Doing everything even before the deadline.
(2) They have TTK Prestige as a listed company- Anything adventurous here by promoters means doubt on the promoter’s integrity in the eyes of the shareholders of the TTK prestige.
(3) They used to have AGM around August(the last one was also in the month of August), But they feel confident of delisting that’s why this year they have kept it just before the completion of the Delisting.
(4) People have doubt over scattered shareholding while I am confident that even if 50% of the small shareholder’s bid, they will be able to reach 90%. This is because in Mutual funds most of the shares have been help by Axis, in HNI’s Major holding is with Mr. Tulsian and In FII’s its Jupiter and in Body Corporates it is Abbakus. HNI’s are mostly active. I have assigned the probability of the bid offering above.
(5) As you highlighted above, they have enough funds and they have timely deposited in the Escrow account. Had they hadn’t we have been seeing delays here.
In most cases the delisting happens at a time high, here it is around 1474 and this is some retailer stuck here. Even considering their desperation to exit they will not bid below cost and in fact will cost above that.
Promoters have successfully kept the prices lower here (I have already stated that the amount involved here is in billions and they will put all mechanisms there to keep prices in check. In my opinion, they have also done that. After all its billions.
On Price: I still feel that delisting will be successful and it will be somewhere between 1500-1550. It is just that market does not feel so. which makes this interesting. Based on the Searches I have found that it is not the price but the shareholding pattern which is not giving sufficient evidence but based on my analysis that should not be a fear.
Best case and worst case:
The worst Case is delisting and facing a debacle (hahaha). Jokes apart worst case if 1201
best case I have already stated that given how they have kept prices in check they probably would be comfortable with anything 15-20% from here.
Rest, we will have to wait for tomorrow. Also, don’t expect bids to be submitted by tomorrow itself. This time retail have a upper hand. without them 90% can’t be reached. Even if some fund houses bid lower, that will not be sufficient for exit price decisions. From tomorrow we will start tracking. Look for where the bids are clusstered. We will calculate total numbers here and will decide the bidding price.
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