Chemical sector rally was a sectoral rally mainly fuelled by shortages and some other company and sector specific factors . The sectoral rally topped out in early 2022, say Jan to April 2022. The fancy was so strong that it made investors believe that the demand environment was going to remain strong for ever. Some managements also went crazy and went in for crazy capexes especially at the peak of the cycle. And while the rally fizzled out, it has not fizzled out of the minds of retail investors. Even now after nearly 12-18 months of the sector peaking out. Many stocks still keep posting fresh swing lows.
I read about a lot of so called experts forecasting that worst will be over in next 2-3 quarters, and I have been hearing this since past 3-4 quarters, and the timelines keep getting extended.
Regarding your query about how investors should prepare for expected turnaround in the sector, the first thing they should do is look at other sectors where money is waiting to be made.
It could be a future opportunity, but we are not sure about the time line. How far in the future is the rainbow for chemical sector going to re appear. Few months, few quarters, few years? Its anybody’s guess.
I think we as investors need to learn from history related to sectoral fancies. When these fancies start and reach their bubble territory, most investors get carried away by the narrative, and start feeling that these tailwinds are going to last for ever. At peak of the cycle, what we see is peak sales, peak margins, peak profits, and peak valuations. For all these factors to re align together again will take many years most of the times. There will be the ocassional bounces within the sector and stocks, but making big money is difficult in these names. And all this while, other sectors which are in fancy keep churning out big quick winners. We have seen that happen in defence and railway stocks of late. Once this fancy fades, who knows something else will take its place.
Problem with retail investors is that they are afflicted by recency bias. Sector that has created lot of wealth in recent past ( even if the sector has lost its fancy) keeps popping up in the minds of retail investors and they keep looking out for reasons to invest in the sector. And while their energies are focussed on these kind of sectors, they entirely miss the next big sector. And the cycle goes on.
@hitusohi1 I don’t track SRF but you can read above hypothesis and a lot of it will apply to SRF too. Though it remains one of the better companies in the chemical sector.
@arjunbadola I am not a mutual fund investor and have not looked at any funds in past many years. So I am not the right person to answer your query.
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