Delta Corp as a stock was always lucrative from valuation perspective but taxes and regulatory decisions were holding it back and the uptick in last 6 months was due to some hints being given by MEITY that certain frameworks would be adopted and sort of gave a hint that the earlier indications of GST being applied on face value would not really happen. GST council disregarded or overlooked that and the impression that they gave was to not encourage or for that matter discourage gambling as an activity.
Business/Volumes are bound to go down with the new GST regime. Speculation is how big or small that drop is going to be. I guess only time will tell including whether it will destroy or make the business unviable. CFO resigning could have some inference but still guess work. But near term your stock price wont move up for sure as people will try to seek that clarity which I don’t think might be obvious and will start coming into play only in Feb 2024 when 3rd Quarters results are declared. Probability of stock gravitating towards downside is more. Now this is a short to medium term view. Over time once we have full yearly cycle of new GST play out and then once you start seeing QoQ and YoY results is when there could be more analysis on valuation etc.
It would be interesting if we can get more details from the management if they can give break up in terms of percentages of amount that people place their total bets on like 10% volume coming from people trying to gamble for 5K only, 50% between 5k to 50K and so on. That might give some hints on possible volume going forward. In one of the concalls a similar question was asked but details were not disclosed.
Final thoughts are that best gamble would be to move away from this stock till more clarity comes but again gamblers dont play safe
Disc: Invested presently (looking to reduce/exit)
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