I dont think its possible to predict price erosion in US generic pharma market. Forget about analysts, even the best managements have been often caught on the wrong foot, by doing capex at the wrong times. That being said, one doesn’t need to predict pricing erosion to make profitable investments. Just by buying through the pain period when price erosion is 15%+ is generally sufficient to make good returns.
I have been lucky to play the pharma cycle twice by buying through pain. One was during 2018-19 which paid off in 2020, and then buying through pain in 2022-23, which has benefitted me recently. I think thats a better framework to follow, than pretending to understand whats not possible.
I will ask questions 1 & 2 at their AGM.
About their size being small, the weird part is despite their small size, they are the biggest amongst peers. I think selling data is very hard in India, when one can buy the same from the registrar office.
4. Here’s the exact sales breakup you are looking for. Propedge is a 80% subsidiary and houses their valuation busines.
- I do not know about their B2C forey. Maybe its property valuation reports for individuals.
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