On a positive note – management has stressed on execution. Erstwhile leaders though stressing on delivery, used to fall short every other quarter, whether through their lack of vision or due to Acts of God, read as Covid, or SemiConductor shortage.
The luck factor on the side of the company, was that, it was not capital intensive – sometime ago they mentioned ~200 crs (per year?) was enough to meet operational expenses – so the receivables getting stuck was not a big negative.
About 2 years ago, recall how markets kept punishing the MCap due to BSNL dues not budging. This time around the bright spot is that, TCS is the customer who then collect from BSNL.
New Tata management would be keen to bring motions in order. And TCS is rich in cash. They should clear dues promptly. This is a national project where the Government is keen to show the technological prowess into next 25years of India’s growth. Plus, my belief is Tata’s got a fair trade for taking AirIndia out of Governments books.
In ~1.5yrs, if 7K crores get executed then each quarter revenue should be 1200 crores (7.5Kcr / 6Q ). Much higher than ~200crs per Q now.
Plus there’s ‘several thousand crores’ worth of maintenence beginning in 3Y and stretching to 9Y (3Y_fwd_9Y_bond). Plus 5G as per management.
Failed to understand why the newscasters at CNBC interview above didnt do a rough calculation – but kept asking, management.
Edit: perversely my thoughts are that, this is a better EMS play than a pure route. Hoping for another few baggins-of-wealth. A few of us I know, held and added through a lot of pain – so this kind of seems like a reward.
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