There are few other reasons why i sold the stock
- The promoter decision to participate in the buyback ,this only tells me that they also feel that 500 price is a good price to sell there holdings which is only 20% more then the current price.
2)I had invested as an cyclical bet when p.e was less then 8,price to book was around 1 ish and there were a lot of negative sentiments :-one of them being the promoter was sent to jail in the chopper case.With nifty being all time high and the stock facing a lot of tailwinds :ban on rice,pakistan floods,company enjoying peak margins ,stok trading at high pe ,book value historically.
3)currently rice price are at an all time high and this was reflected in there margin erosion in the last few quarters due to high procurement cost of rice.I feel there is chancd that there might be inventory write offs if the price of rice fall next year due to good production.
4)I see this as a cyclical stock as although India gate is great brand but i don’t see people starting to consume more rice then they already do and they don’t have the bargaining power this was evident in them not being able to find a distributor for so long.
5)Poor use of cash ,them trying diversify has only burned cash ,i would have rather saved money to clear more debt or not take debt to procure inventory or backward integrated by buying land to produce there own rice.I feel this buyback is also a way to offload there own holding at a premium price.
I might be wrong prices of rice may rise further but promoter participating in the buyback also did not give me the confidence to hold onto my gains so i decided to sell.
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