Nice update/summary @kondal_investor
The initial thesis of this thread, for me, was that amd is going to displace intel in the lucrative server space. Everything is now getting skewed because of AI spending is eating out cpu/gpu spending. Never imagined this would happen.
This sinks the infra CPU revenue for AMD this year I think. They are still guiding strong very likely because intel has no answer to amd tco advantage
“Amazon EC2 M7a instances, powered by 4th generation AMD EPYC processors, deliver up to 50% higher performance compared to M6a instances. These instances support AVX3-512, VNNI, and bfloat16, which enable support for more workloads, use Double Data Rate 5 (DDR5) memory to enable high-speed access to data in memory, and deliver 2.25x more memory bandwidth compared to M6a instances.”
Basically, it appears AMD is helping replace tonnes of old CPUs with new genoa/bergamo ones. If only AI had not made the capex re-allocation for all CSPs, this would have been a bumper year for AMD.
Regarding AMD AI effort - they are not really making a target only for Training. Their approach is broad (inference/edge etc). Offcourse that would be the way since they do not have anything that competes with nvda in training right now. Jean Hu mentoned clearly in Deutsche Bank 2023 Technology Conference, that they will get meaningful revenue via mi300x only in 2H2024. By then, we have no idea what the dynamics would be since nvidia would have gotten all the supply bookings they have done with TSMC. Meanwhile, their rocm development appears to be making great strides - Example: Just today - https://github.com/openai/triton/pull/1983. They are working hard.
As of now, AMD is not looking at some explosive growth. AI Poured water on all my predictions. Accordingly, I have decided to move some money to nvidia.
Edit: Talk about diversifying. It crossed my mind an year back to buy nvidia and amd together since one is for CPU and the other is for GPU. But somehow I decided following two companies would not be worth the effort etc. Infact, I was researching 3 companies anyway. Bad decision making from my side,.
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