Dear Nikhil,
Personally, I welcome this discussion, and your persistence is appreciated.
It is important for all of us to revisit our biases and take new learnings.
Ref. your Page input:
Ultimately we must remember that future price CAGR is a linear speculation to a future non-linear realisation.
Real prices will reflect extreme valuations based on investors greed and fear and therefore present opportunities.
Remember Prof’s WABCO chart where you see 4 steep corrections to a stock that eventually appreciated 18x over 5 years.
Page share price will not show linear growth of x or y CAGR over the coming years.
At the next major market correction Page will offer attractive entry points.
Page is a business with high certainty and predictability of growth, and a high ROE of 60%.
Such a business should not be sold when at optically high P/E but added at every meaningful correction.
So please keep your eyes open for Page whenever it corrects to a more reasonable optical P/E.
Vishals wonderful interaction in the link above also articulates very well the reasons that a business like Page should be held for a long time.
It is also correct that you are inclined to look for high quality companies and not overpaying for them.
Although we are allowed to invest out of India. not many investors are willing to diversify their portfolios for a number of valid reasons.
There are countries / possibilities to buy high quality businesses at more reasonable valuations that satisfy the “buy and hold” criteria listed above.
Before the next major India correction (which may happen sooner than many of us think), you may want to take time and look at some of these opportunities for portfolio diversification, if the idea appeals to you.
Best regards,
Aniket.
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