On the Question of estimation of orderbook : Generally during the RFI/RFQ phase the lifetime quantity is discussed. From my experience of working at a TIER-1 , we used to ask the OEMs for the Quantity over the lifetime.
If the Quantity was less ( in our case < 100000), we would usually ask them to take off the shelf product (if that was a part of the offering) Additional costs were put against Software modification , hardware configuration etc.
If the Quantity goes above 1 million, the price would get negotiated and we would aggressively bid for the project. The contract also had compensation terms in case the quantity was not fulfilled. Sometimes we would track this on an annual basis.
The development cycle of a 4 W EV is approximately 3-4 years ( and it is getting shorter ) RFI /RFQ are sent within 6 months and suppliers are finalised within 1.5 years.
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