Gokaldas exports — cup and handle/rising channel

Given the specific situation (as detailed above),
I would discuss the relevant factors i.e. numbers to get to the Valuation.
And happy to hear contra opinions here.

@wiseunwise shared the approach of Reverse DCF above.
It looks like a good way to look at Valuations.
I’m assigning the numbers that look rational to me.

1. Earnings
   Atraco’s current earnings are 30% & 35% of Gokex’s revenue & profit’s resp
   Adding a conservative 30% to last yr’s Profits of 173Crs, comes to 225Crs.

Let’s take 2 scenario’s of discount rates 15 & 20% (reasonably high benchmarks)

2. No of Yrs & Terminal Multiples go hand in hand
   A. No of Yrs
   Once the FTA’s are in place, the growth should sustain for a long time.
   Let’s take the 5/10/20 yrs as scenario’s
   B. The Terminal multiple – the average P/E from last 3 yrs, is around 20.
   The way Gokex has progressed, by now, it looks like a formidable player.
   So P/E of 20 looks like a conservative benchmark.
   I’m assigning terminal P/E of 20 on a 5/10 yr period & 15 on 20 yr period

We get a Implied growth rate of 10/ 15% depending on the Discount rate.

The Management has guided for 20% growth rate for long term
(The MD, Siva Ganapathi ji looks conservative in his approach & quite credible, so far)

Onto the FTA, the Textile minister, and Geopolitical context.
The closure of FTA has been widely speculated since a while now.
I have been following Piyush Goyal ji’s mentions on newspapers since a while now, and surely there’s prominence to FTAs.
Also, G20 seems to have gone well, and further consolidates Inda’s position globally.
And daily we are looking at corporates validating India’s manufacturing Renaissance.
So India’s Textile manufacturing growth looks quite assured.

Given all of the above, I’m quite comfortable with the company’s current Valuation.

Disclaimer: Invested & Biased. Imho, the discussion’s primary focus is Valuation.
And in that regard, would humbly request to kindly highlight any apparent mistakes/ flaws in the approach/ thinking to avoid going wrong on a high conviction bet.