I think valuation is very subjective matter. But to add some points for you to take better decision:
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Currently Vinati is trading at 16x 17E fwd PE multiple. If you read the reports which forms this consensus, you will find that they do not account for 200 Cr capex revenue which will start flowing from a year now.
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The company has excellent return ratios around 30% RoE and 23% RoCE, just look around in the market and see how are businesses with similar return ratios trading >>> look at La Opala, Mayur Uniquoters, Kajaria, Wim Plast etc.
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You find all the points which Graham or Fisher mentiones in their books >>> Dull B2B businessess >> Niche in their business >> Economies of scale >> Well-known among customers >> Expanding market share >> Oligopoly market >> Market leader with competitive advantage >> Good management etc.
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You can even compare the return ratios and multiples of its peers who are fairly discovered and having decent coverage like Atul limited and Aarti industries >> they trade at same multiples despite slightly moderate return ratios
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The only negative currenly I see is the stock is less discovered, less tracked by brokers and there is lack of communication from management in terms of disclosure, concalls etc
Happy to have your views on above points.
Disclosure: Invested and my views may be biased
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