I partially agree with your point but partially have different view.
I do not believe we HAVE TO invest in financial stocks just because financials form large part of our index / total mcap. My personal belief is invest where we can make money. Please note I have nothing personal against this bank. I am part owner too
I agree finance is big part but banks are looking lucrative only because of all the deleveraging that has happened post covid shock. All the banks have strong balance sheets. Corporates have reduced debt considerably (at the cost of low private capex). Now when the private capex pick up, bank will lend more and there will be growth. But for how long? 3 yrs? 5 yrs? Some day the party will stop. Its a cycle.
I find this statement very optimist for the reason mentioned above. Past 3 yrs went in balance sheet cleaning (for banks and corporates). Government did all the heavy capex. Private will pick up (may be post elections). So there can be growth for next 2-3 yrs. but the competition is equally intense. Currently, the bank is strongly placed to make the most of coming growth but future is uncertain. Its hard to decide right now to hold it for decades (my personal view).
Can you please suggest how did you calculate this BV ratio? according to me, current multiple is 2.4 (price 94 / bv 39).
by giving this multiple, you are placing the bank in the leagues of HDFC & ICICI & Kotak.
I agree with all these triggers. But don’t you think rerating has already happened? I believe price has run up the fundamentals. Now bank will have to deliver on all these parameters to ensure the current multiples sustain.
Once again: Nothing against the bank. I have invested in it too. All I am saying is be extra cautious. Borrowing analogy from @Worldlywiseinvestors , we are riding a tiger here. tightly pakad ke rakhna.
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