Even if they werent able to offer contracts from January onwards for a period of 2-3 months, even then the probability of liquidity moving to another platform is small. Main reason is that all contracts on the futures side (except energy) are compulsorily deliverable. That means that there is a vast warehouse network that underpins the digital trading. NSE or another exchange wont be able to replicate that quickly. If they cant do that, then buying compulsorily deliverable contracts becomes extremely risky (even if you have no intention of taking delivery). See what happened to oil futures contracts in USA in March 2020 when it was impossible to take delivery. Most likely, SEBI is arm twisting and will reverse their stance and allow MCX to launch new contracts in a worst case scenario.
In any case, options isnt a threat since NSE isnt even allowed to launch most contracts since they dont meet the 1000 cr minimum ADT criteria.
Disc: Invested
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