SmallCap Hunter : Trying to find the dark horses with triggers

Happy to see you back!

I have tracked Railways, Financial services and Infra from the Euphoria section. From the downward trajectory I have track Chemicals, pharma, shrimp.

My views:

1. Electronics manufacturing: The euphoria here is at another level. I couldn’t catch the gravy train here and I feel the FOMO in me. There is definitely goverment’s seriousness in it and the capex being done by each player.

2. Railways – Definitely extreme euphoria specially with wagon manufacturing companies. A lot of froth is because of the expected large tender from railways but expecting similar order in coming years is doubtful because the NRP hasn’t been revised and as per current plan the wagon demand till 2030 doesn’t justify 50 to 100 PE. Ofcourse the companies are doing more than just wagon manufacturing but I still don’t see value in buying them at 70 PE or so. I do hold a position in couple of them and will exit when I see the euphoria ending.

3. Financial Services – I don’t personally think there is extreme euphoria in it. There is certainly optimism but I am still comfortable holding companies at current valuations. SOIC’s recent video on financial sector has good data on the valuations and historical examples.

4. Infra – I have exited from all infra plays. It was a short ride but I don’t understand this sector to comfortably hold it at today’s valuations.

5. Chemicals – I will start loading agrochemicals when there is assuring visibility of profits. I am happy to lose the opportunity to buy the bottom in favor of lower risk.
   I don’t hold speciality chemicals because they require better understanding of the area and the business (my personal belief) and things change faster. I hold commodity chemical companies because they are easier to understand and track.

6. Pharma – I remain in a generic pharma company and tracking two other. I don’t think there is too much pessimism here. Other sectors are looking more colorful than this.

7. Shrimp – Similar to agrochemicals, I am happy to buy it when the ride begins! Too much uncertainty here.

Other sectors I want to track – Renewable (euphoria? or fairly valued?), hospitals, wood panel, PEBs (many small caps here)