I’m afraid I have not looked at CAMS in detail. Based on my limited knowledge, since both seem to derive revenues off AUMs (and are both affected by TER changes / tiers), CAMS looks more like an ETF of AMCs (since I think 5 contribute ~70% RTA?) while HDFC AMC is just like a single AMC stock. Therefore unless we are sure HDFC AMC can outperform market AUM growth (through a combination of market share gain, performance and inorganic), CAMS seems to be a safer bet (assuming it has a reasonable moat).
Given both have similar PEs and Dividend Payouts, in my view your analysis seems reasonable that CAMS could be more stable. Please take with a pinch of salt as I have not investigated CAMS in depth
Disc. Invested in HDFC AMC and likely to be biased. My XIRR on HDFC AMC is ~11% over a 3.5 year period. I will review my position next year and consider whether remaining with a position in any AMC stock is worthwhile (steady, transparent business with some cyclicality and long runway – but are there better opportunities elsewhere?)
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