I think all are interconnected to some extent, a strong government whose actions are favorable to the businesses of the country, an environment where businesses can grow, and markets perceiving such actions as beneficial to the participants, so more participation from across the globe, which in turn bring in more domestic participation, MFs emerging as an alternative and standard venue of investments for retail, AMCs with their views, strategies, vision becoming profitable, RTAs too depending on AMCs, everyone is happy.
But as there are many moving parts, some at global level, and some at local level, I am not too sure if this can continue for years to come, as we have not seen a GFC like happening, even if it does not happen, a couple of years of losses might force the new entrants from the retail segment, participating via demat or MF, leave the market, and they may not return again, because they have many ways to get some profit, which are in existence for decades.
5 years look long, they are in a sense, but going by the circulated layman’s explanation for relativity by Einstein himself, in the context of 25 years, 5 years is not that long, it could even be called a fancy, a flash in the pan.
Of course, the financialization theme is backed by data reported by AMFI or other institutions, so there may exist a case of some secular increase YoY from the informed section, and this may have already started, and may continue for many more years till the current working generation retires.
I don’t know about the other verticals these businesses have, PMS, AIF, personalized advice etc, whose revenue may grow irrespective of the state of the markets, and as these folks are different to that of retail in many ways, overtime, these may become bigger than the retail vertical, with more and more new products focused towards these people. Maybe we will have CDS, CDOs and synthetic CDOs in our market too.
So I guess, valuations of AMCs and RTAs play a bigger role here, if the majority of revenue is coming from retail.
Just my thoughts, no investment in AMCs or RTAs, interested in the space.
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