Now that we have had some time to absorb new information from AGM 2023 Updates and also deliberated amongst friends/other investors/in-house VP domain experts, let’s summarise some Key Information and go on to stick our necks out and make bold to present some Key Insights (forward-looking, that look clear to me, but of course will need some more field validation from domain experts, than what we have today!).
Disc: SBCL stock is currently at expensive levels. This post has forward looking inferences (which may all go wrong). Buying at these levels will be fraught with risks. Being Invested, my views are biased.
Key Information to focus on (all data/facts that move the needle the most!)
-
Isabellen Hutte commands 60-70% share of EV BMS shunts supplies to Tier1 EV BMS suppliers like Bosch, Hella, Continental that in turn supply to all major Auto OEMs. ISAH primary bonding tech is Hard Resistant Bonding, EBW bonding tech share is probably negligible. Has Patents around the Hard Resistant Bonding tech/processes.
-
EBW Bonding tech vendors (capable of EBW Shunt strips) include IsabellenHutte (1 EBW m/c), Vishay (3 EBW), Shivalik (8 EBW, also some are with multiple guns, so total is more like 11(?), Wieland Germany (1 EBW), Cyntech Taiwan (1 EBW), Korean (2 companies, 1 EBW each), Chinese (2 companies, servicing Chinese Market primarily).
-
Totally 8 Competitors globally (EBW Shunt strips capable) approved with OEMs. Effectively 5 players only in SBCL addressable market as Chinese players serve the China market, and ISAH concentrates on propagating Hard Resistant Bonding tech, has negligible EBW Shunts presence. Vishay is NOT a competitor but a win-win customer. Wieland (a major player) is a new entrant though to EBW Shunt strips, Cyntech was a SBCL customer before and new entrant, Korean players one of them also a SBCL customer before, and new entrant.
-
Typically the supply relationships between a Tier1 like Bosch and a Tier 3 supplier like ISAH (for a particular OEM platform) are contracted for the expected life of the product. So say for a OEM platform introduced in 2015/16, the shunt supply contract is typically 10 years and running/in-force till say 2025/2026
-
Almost all OEMs have introduced/working on new Platforms that will be launched in 2025/2026 timeframes. Due to large number of sensors in an BEV and Hybrid EVs and thus consequent proliferating errors, OEMs have now specified ASIL C standards with an aggregate desired accuracy 1% at the BMS level, and compartmentalised error levels for different components e.g. this 1% accuracy desired at BMS level translates to 0.05% accuracy level required at individual Shunt level (existing vehicles have 1% accuracy requirements at Shunt level)
-
SBCL Tier1 customers like Bosch, Hella, Continental demand (but can’t measure 0.05% shunt level accuracy) but the OEMs can and do measure before approving. SBCL has passed this stage with all major global OEMs now.
-
ISAH has also been making Current Sensing (CSM) modules using their Shunts. And started offering the same to the OEMs (effectively competing with other Tier1 supplier just like Bosch, Hella and Continental). OEMs ONLY care about ASIL C 1% accuracy at CSM/BMS level, they do not care whether Shunts came with Hard Resistant Bonding tech or EBW Bonding tech.
Key Insights to fix on (Inherently forward looking)
We solicit more work and discussion around these with industry domain experts)
-
SBCL is today positioned at every major Auto OEM for their EV forays mostly through their Tier1s like Hella, Continental, Bosch and Others (nail these down). In some, the positioning is very strong like in Continental and Hella (buttressed by forward visibility of 6-7 years), likely to become as big, or better than the Vishay relationship. Very likely a few years down the line SBCL will emerge as the primary vendor for both Hella and Continental offerings to OEMs
(Work in progress will be uploading shortly)
For more exploration
- Wieland E-Mobility (EBW shunt strips, Shunts, Shunts-based Current Sensors)
- Cyntech ASIL C and ASIL D Shunt Modules
| Subscribe To Our Free Newsletter |
