@Maheshcm – Yes, you are right. Allygrow isn’t at that level of expertise as their rev/employee also indicates. AllyGrow is 16 lakhs/emp and AllyGram I think was 25 lakhs/emp if I remember right, as compared to KPIT’s 40 lakh/emp or so.
@ankit_tripathi – If I remember right from the AGM, this is a one-time hit for something that happened in the past (dont quite remember)
Some broad market views I was thinking of today.
Nifty, Monthly
Getting back into the wedge. The month of course isn’t over yet and we have 3 more trading days. If Nifty manages to recover to 19300 odd levels, we could have a strong rally next month. If not, and if next month tests 18300 levels (bottom of the wedge) unsuccessfully, we could have a rising wedge breakdown, which is a common pattern. In fact these sort of rising wedges are bearish setups. Similar setup on the weekly with just 1 trading day left (tomorrow) shows this bearishness is more or less likely, barring a miracle
Midcap 100, Weekly, Similar distribution and breakdown on the Nifty Midcap 100 index as well. 7 weeks of sideways movement has given off this week.
Smallcap 100, Weekly – This was the original chart I shared on Sept 1st week. There is confirmation of the breakdown this week though this went sideways for 7 weeks since my post.
The microcap chart is the best of the lot. It is yet to even take support on 20 WMA.
Liquidity clearly is strong in the micro/smallcap space going by the relative strength they have shown. The concern I have is that, these can catch up much faster to large/mids when they start showing weakness.
The past 7 weeks offered some good bets which had valuation comfort like Shilchar, Garware, Goodluck, PDS, Ceinsys which worked out well (Swelect, Mazda which didn’t) but I am not comfortable initiating fresh positions if market conditions deteriorate further now that there is confirmation, as compared to my speculation in Sept 1st week when bullish fervour was high. We will have clarity once week and month finishes. It is strange though culling a pf which is doing so phenomenally well.
Disc: Back to 35% cash and will reduce further once I have weekly/monthly confirmation. Still have positions in all names mentioned but at reduced allocations and bullish to that extent
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