(Below data is taken from few sources and may not be very accurate)
Global sugar sector scenario:
Global production expected for S.S 2023-24 is around 175 MT compared to 177 MT during the current season.
Global consumption is also expected to be around 177MT leading to a potential deficit of 2MT.
Brazil sugar production is expected at 41MT compared to 31 MT last year.
Thailand production is expected to be reduced to 8 MT compared to 10MT last season.
The European Union is expected to produce 17 MT compared to 15.5 MT last year.
DOMESTIC SUGAR SECTOR:
S.season 2022-23 production ~ 33MT and 4 MT was diverted for ethanol.( Total 37MT) and sugar export of about 6.4 MT.
Opening sugar stock expected ~ 6 MT at the end of S.season 22-23.
Expected sugar production in India for the sugar season 2023-24 : 29MT and 4MT is expected to be diverted for ethanol production.(total sugar equivalent of 33MT)
Available sugar for next season will be ~35MT (29MT+ opening stock of 6MT).
Total domestic consumption is expected at 28MT.
Sugar export quota will be dependent on Govt policy which is expected to be announced in January. Considering the tight situation it’s expected that the Govt will restrict the export of sugar compared to last year.
Overall sugar prices are expected to remain firm.
The reason for drop in sugar production is due to potential reduction from Karnataka and Maharashtra states.
Discl: Not invested , tracking sugar sector.
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