Hi @hitesh2710
Firstly thanks a ton for the wealth of knowledge that you keep sharing Hitesh bhai. I have picked hbl following you and it has been an almost 3x in less than year timeframe
The way i look at the story now onwards-
- On revenue gront
Fy26 revenue at 2900 cr, and giving it a 6/7 price to sales, cagr over next 2.75 years (q2 is not yet out) is 32%/39%.while revenues could overshoot management estimates…management estimates are not conservative as well. Hbl has developed capabilities through r&d but their execution capabilities are yet to be established. - On pe front…going by management guidance of 18% ebida on fy26 revenues,and assuming interest +depreciation of 60 cr pat is 350 cr. At 50 pe ,returns are 32%
Hence am expecting a 30%-35% cagr provided there is no negative surprise on revenue/margin.
Company being in twin positives of ev/ defense ensures buzz stays for some time…however i am not able to assign >7x price to sales.
Would be keen to understand your view on the story going forward.
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