Few anti-thesis points:
You may have come across in social media platfroms that the Lounges had big queues. I assume that most people were going there just because it’s available for free and I believe not many would go if there’s no free lounge access option.
I don’t think many of them would shift from current cards (500 AMC ) to premium cards (1500-2000 AMC) just to avail the Lounge access benefits.
Let’s ask ourselves the following questions:
- Where do I and my peers (colleagues, neighbours) stand in terms of earning spending ability (top 5% in India, top 20% in India, etc…)
- Am I (and my peers) willing to pay 1500-2000rs AMC for a card just to avail the Lounge access benefit ? ( If I’m in top 20% and not willing to pay then people below 20% are also not willing to pay, and same for top 5% and vice versa)
- Am I going to /willing to spend 1-1.5 lakhs in a Qrtr to avail Lounge access benefit ?
From my limited understanding people are taking different Credit cards to avail shopping benefits (1.5% or 5% reward points) and the lounge access is not a deciding factor. So, I believe people will just let go of lounge benefits
From my above anti-thesis I believe that the revenue will not grow beyond 50% (not CAGR) in next 4 years and stock would not reach it’s ATH of 847 any time in next 3-4 years unless the contribution from their other business vertical (leasing their software to othe cos etc.). and I’ll not be buyer in a business with no growth at 35x P/E
Disc: My views are with limited understanding and no holding in the stock
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