Amazing analysis, thanks for taking this time and condensing this for us. Hats off!
I agree with you almost everywhere. I am just worried about the ammonia price stability going forward and impacts on NBS subsidy like we have seen before. Ammonia prices were higher post mid-August and September because a major manufacturer in Saudi Arabia Maden was facing production issues. It recently got back into the market and you could see a corelation in the slump in the ammonia price here
Also the interest rate point is bang on, the interest rates will remain high in short term atleast based on the recent FED commentary. NBS subsidy was again cut recently in October and the announcement came towards end of month (subsidy applies from 1st of October). This would ideally suggest again an impact on inventory for the month of October.
These headwinds will need to be compensated with other chemical products for this company to succeed.
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