Hi thankyou for your kind words,
I am not aware of the saudi thing If you could please share some link, overall ammonia historically has traded between 400$ to 450$ this is where the equilibrium has been there. I think one big negative which the company did is contracting gas at very high price which resulted into higher breakeven.
Most of the things are still unknown, like I dont know what might be the real savings, that we would only know after stabilization and it can surprise on either sides plus it is not just the money part they explained in earlier concalls as well like now you have the raw material just beside you instead of waiting for it as to when it gets shipped.
The second lever which I am playing is on TAN realization I think this is also like at all time low, just think about this way the government to keep the supply in the country has restricted exporting and then from the other side there is continuous dumping and still their capacity utilization is 118% so the realization is artificially being kept low.
Also plz share the link on NBS subsidy cut,
There are a lot of headwinds hence I would not buy it lumpsum, I would gradually increase as I see some improvement.
The better way to look it would be from a ratio perspective, if you see the longterm has come down and short term has gone up in debt, on a gross debt to equity they are at 0.75 and on a net debt to equity they are at 0.5, this is defiantly a risk but I think for a ratio perspective it should not increase much but rather decrease + interest rates are at peak ( All this is story telling so can be horribly wrong)
my view- They company has build some really good capability and is in a very strong position but everything looks to be unfavorable now so I am taking a 1% to 2% position at PF level and as and when things start getting better I would be adding more to it, the biggest risk is that they dont blow up as long as we understand that then every fall is an opportunity, IMO they have hit the lowest in terms of PAT from here it should be increasing
waiting eagerly for concall
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