Goldman Sachs Research has revised its outlook on electric vehicle (EV) battery prices and the EV market. They anticipate significant changes that could make EVs more competitive with traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles:
Battery Price Projections:
- Battery prices are expected to decline to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025, a 40% decrease from the 2022 levels.
- A substantial portion of this price drop, almost half, is attributed to the falling prices of essential EV raw materials, including lithium, nickel, and cobalt.
- Battery pack prices are projected to decrease by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030.
Impact on the EV Market:
- With the expected drop in battery prices, the EV market could achieve cost parity with ICE vehicles on a total-cost-of-ownership basis without the need for subsidies, potentially around the middle of this decade.
- This reduction in battery costs may lead to more competitive EV pricing, which, in turn, could drive increased consumer adoption and expand the total addressable markets for EVs and batteries.
Shift in Market Dynamics:
- The EV market, which was initially driven by regulatory support, is transitioning to a new phase influenced more by consumer adoption than government incentives, thanks to declining battery prices.
- Goldman Sachs Research’s base-case estimate for global EV penetration sees it jumping to 17% in 2025 from just 2% in 2020. Projections increase to 35% and 63% by 2030 and 2040, respectively.
- In a “hyper adoption” scenario, EVs could account for 21% of total global vehicle sales by 2025, 47% by 2030, and 86% by 2040.
China Leading the Way:
- China is at the forefront of this shift, with its EVs competitively priced compared to ICE vehicles, especially in its local market.
- While Chinese EV sales have been subsidized by manufacturers selling at a loss, this trend is expected to change in the mid-2020s, coinciding with battery price declines and increased EV sales volumes.
Global Perspective:
- In contrast, carmakers in the US and Europe have predominantly focused on larger and more luxurious EV models.
- Goldman Sachs Research believes that the EV market in China is the closest to a consumer-led EV adoption phase.
Battery Innovations:
- New battery technologies are expected to play a significant role in the rapid decline of battery prices.
- Innovations include novel anode materials that incorporate silicon, enhancing energy density, and new battery structures, like larger cylindrical batteries, streamlining pack manufacturing processes, leading to savings in labor and machine time.
These changes in battery prices and market dynamics are predicted to have a profound impact on the EV industry and could accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, making them more accessible and competitive in the coming years.
Source: Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected
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