To add a point to your thesis, I guess market’s reaction to quarterly results can also be considered. The rise or fall as per the participants’ view, the strength of such or fall can mean something. Price may react in accordance with the results or may react in a opposite way too. So I guess, along with the thesis we have, including the reaction of the market will help more. Not to mention observing charts, which presents the same picture in a different but helpful way. There could be an element of short term traders too, but not to the extent of speculation without any basis.
Just some thoughts.
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