Current Bull market in India started in 2020.
Factors:
- Quantitative Easing, lower interest rates
- Media induced optimism
- China Plus One, promotion of Manufacturing, PLI schemes
- 2022-2023: Government’s vast number of schemes to ensure victory in 2024 (And for India’s growth too)
- FOMO by retail investors, putting money into Mutual funds which DII use to support the market (FII’s are selling for a long time)
- People leaving jobs or losing jobs and entering the Markets permanently. Professions have been created and players can’t afford to let the optimism die.
Why does it seem like this bull market will last forever
- Market has been recovering from crashes quicker than it was ever before.
2008 Crash: 18 months
Covid Crash: 6 months.
December’22 downtrend: 4 months. - Average holding period of a stock has dropped. There is a huge churn in Portfolio as well as Indexes, with rebalancing of weights too. We are focused on Momentum investing, and losers are thrown away. Indexes keep performing well. Long term investing has declined.
Factors which can stop this Bull market and trigger medium term downtrend
- Worldwide war, Terror attacks in India, Riots whatever
- Interest rate hikes, inflation continues further (Less likely)
- Big scandals in India or the USA. Trusted popular faces part of a scam. Could be politicians, businessman, anyone to create distrust in the public.
- USA Election, Indian Election results. Ruling goverment, policies change or are slowed down.
FII’s & DII’s will churn heavily, their investing is based on current policies. - Zerodha stops working again (For the third time in a month)
- Basically any Black Swan event. Otherwise, there is no way we can enter a Bear Market at this point.The optimism is unreal.
Will appreciate the VP community’s take on this 
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