Rain Industries – An oversold de-leveraging play

I will try to give my opinion, I may be slightly biased since I believe in the story.

1. On refinancing it was already communicated in last presentation(Aug) that in next 2 weeks debt will be refinanced accordingly it has happened. Until last 2 years when interest rate where low it was better to focus on Capex so did they do, now they have ACP factories ready capacity in excess , we need to wait how ACP will be accepted from customers and additional coke requirements will be met or not after govt decision. its only sudden interest rate hikes changed scenario since 2021. that is exactly why stock is still hanging at 150’s.

2. Regarding Investor friendly, I go because of Pabrai investment as he spoke to management, and he himself said that management is not keen to meet investors and it took him 4 years to meet them, Also Pabarai said he will be invested in Rain till current MD is alive and driving the business… he used these words. If you hear their presentation calls they never give hype and mostly are conservative about future prospects. never seemed they tried to manipulate prices in stock market. During Chinese Virus they raised their holding slightly but it was at marc 2020 itself… during peak of panic.

3. Cement business will be emotional aspect as its his father or family business, no point in counting on it but they are not making losses anyway.

4.USA listing may not happen with so big debt… In coming 1-2 years, debt reduction, ACP acceptability, India Import restrictions etc… will give more clarity, they have started reducing debt since now rate increased to 12.5%.

EU business has started and that its capacity to reach optimum level will take up to 1 year, that was also mentioned in Aug presentation.