Valuation is a very subjective topic to discuss. Here are my two cents in this case. Thanks to @Worldlywiseinvestors, Aditya Khemka, and @unseenvalue for their public teachings.
The common framework for valuing Pharma companies is EV/EBITDA and PE. @Worldlywiseinvestors mentions following bull, base, and bear scenarios. In the bull case, the aspiring company (Neuland) will reach the valuation of leaders in the segment (such as Divis and Syngene). The base case will be for EV/EBITDA to grow according to the YoY growth of the company, and the bear case will be going below the last 3 or 5 years of EV/EBITDA.
In similar lines, Aditya Khemka mentions underperforming and outperforming companies, essentially leaders and newcomers. In the case of CDMO, he mentions a minimum of 12 and a maximum of 25 EV/EBITDA multiples, and in terms of PE, 18-45, which covers the broad range.
If you believe Neuland is still cyclical, the current valuation might have no margin of safety. If you believe it has joined the list of CDMO players, you may expect a consistent compounder type of company and growth rates.
The Art of Valuing Pharma & Healthcare Companies in Youtube.
Subscribe To Our Free Newsletter |