Is Suzlon a turnaround story after FY16

Latest concall of Suzlon gives some good insights on multiple points:

1. Demand increasing for EPC services of Suzlon…as per management, currently there are no other EPC players left in market for Wind Power Setup and commissioning.
2. Order execution is usually 1:2 ratio between H1 and H2…this is for the overall industry as well
3. Sharp reduction in interest cost expected from Q3 onwards …H1 interest cost was 90 Cr. So ideally majority of this should flow to bottom line in H2
4. instead of focusing on latest and greatest Turbine size (Suzlon 3.2 MW vs Adani 5.2 MW), analyst should focus on “cost per kw” of the turbine. That as per Suzlon is the right way to look at it…They believe that Suzlon 3.2 MW will be better on this metric against Adani 5.2 MW for many sites…Wind speed and strength at each site is a key parameter that will determine what works best
5. Suzlon has 4GW theoretical capacity, with 3 to 3.5 being real capacity. however this capacity can be scaled up quickly in different ways depending on multiple factors. So capacity is not a constraint in medium term
6. Not planning to actively get in to Solar, unless there is a demand from customer to do so for a Hybrid project.
7. Current order book split is 47% EPC vs 53% turbine supply
8. They do not bid for supply unless O&M is also given to them
9. Have also started doing O&M for turbines from other manufacturers …though it is at a smaller scale right now
10. They are looking at Offshore Wind Energy plans. As per them, it is at a very early stage and even if bids are awarded today, it will be atleast 3-4 years before a turbine needs to be supplied
11. Threat of chinese players flooding the market…it is a threat, but there are challenges for chinese players as well and also for IPPs who procure from them…given the severe shortage of EPC players and skills, in some cases these turbines supplied by chinese players are just lying on the ground…Govt is also becoming aware of this problem now
12. Current order book is 1.6 GW and pipeline discussion is in progress…they have not provided any view on size of the pipeline
13. Current order book should be consumed by FY25. However there are higher chances that Q-o-Q the delivery may get affected due to issues out of there control especially when the customers request postponing the delivers because power evacuation infra is not ready etc.
14. Working capital costs are expected to remain elevated. Management is trying to do optimization wherever it can
15. India might add 4.5 GW this year and 6-7 GW in FY25 of wind capacity

Disclaimer: Notes put on personal understanding and best effort basis…do your own due-diligence. Invested from lower levels and can be biased.