Woah, truly epic in scope with a deceptively innocuous title. Thank you for reading and summarizing this book.
I have very belatedly recognized the importance of history – unfortunately the subject was treated in school as just a chronicle of events or propaganda. But history is the most reliable way to get an appreciation of the base rates of the key outcomes of a situation; and hence useful for investing as well. Kissinger (who is by far the most brilliant and a renowned ‘applied’ historian) said history teaches you to compare the current with analogous situations in the past. He said (or so I think) he would always prefer a historian to an intelligence analyst when he was in office.
Historians often come with substantial hindsight and WYSIATI biases. E H Carr in his celebrated lecture “What is History?” deals with these biases beautifully.
In any case I need to read this one for sure.
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