Came across this intersting compilation posted by @rajivmehta19 on twitter today . Link to the tweet here
This is a list of stocks that didn’t given any return for x months. By looking at the list one can easily guess that the main reasons for this underperformance were 1) Expensive valuations at the starting of the period 2) Cycle high earnings 3) High starting valuation for lower growth rates (very high PEG)
My KTA is that one should always pay attention to the valuation one is paying. Have been a victim of my naivity in the past and the objective now is to avoid or lower the occurence of such mistakes.
Note: The 3 reasons I’ve mentioined for underperformance is not true for all the stocks in the list. For example, I don’t think HDFC bank was trading at exorbitant valuations (but high) to start with. The reason for under performance is slight derating and short term headwinds faced by the co. because of demerger. On the other had I feel that the reason for under performance in Kotak Bank was expensive valuation considering the ROE was/is <15% and the growth rates also were <15%. While many support the valuation saying that there are subsidaries that are unlisted, but that didn’t stop the scrip from under performing the index/market
Remember ? few months ago everyone was gung ho about Bearing companies, the people who bought at those Euphoric valuations bear the cost.
Disc: No reco to buy or sell. I still don’t find many of the above mentioned stocks worth buying, expect a few like banks and probably Reliance
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