Fino payments Bank – Can the unique business model spring a surprise?

From the recent concall of Q2 FY24, the management guided for 20% revenue growth and 50% profit growth rate for next 3 years. I feel that the delta is justified considering the growth would mainly come from my margins businesses i.e. CASA and CMS. Of course there is operating leverage which plays big part.
Like any business high growth rates and (consistent or improving) high ROE is the recipe for return of a stock. I have short calculation of how the ROE may evolve over the years. My calcualtion here

1. I’ve considered PAT growth of 40% against management guidance of 50%
2. ROE = PAT for FY/ average of equity at the end of current FY and previous FY. For eg ROE for FY23 = 65 /0.5(480+552)
3. I’v considered no cash out flow in terms of dividend/buybacks

As per my calculation, the ROEs will reach 20% by FY26 and the improvement in ROE may cause rerating in the stock. Other than that there are few other things to consider

1. Current ROEs are suppressed by cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet
2. Cash distribution in terms of dividends and buybacks may improve the return ratios. But considering the co is applying for SFB license, I don’t expect much from this
3. The profit growth of 40% may or may not be achieved and the rate would go to >25% in coming years from 0 taxes currently

Would appreciate any point for or against my thesis.

Disc: Invested and biased

Thanks
Praveen