Inox did pretty well at 350++ as on date
My next stock is Deepak Fertilizers
- 500 is a strong support and 500 was also their 2017 all time high, so big support + we have the 200 DMA at 500.
- After consolidation between 500 and 600 now 600 is turning to be a strong support, above 700 we can se big move.
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Last 2 quatres we can see horrible performance at PAT levels but I believe that the uptrend in share price would start once we see YOY PAT growth which as per me should happen from Q3 or Q4
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To explain them in short TAN is one of their most profitable segment and TAN is made from Ammonia, the company took huge debt and set up an ammonia plant to do backward integration but 2 months back ammonia price were at all time low.
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TAN prices are artificially low, there is a ban on export which got lifted recently but the permissible limit to export is still very low + there is a huge dumping going on. So complete lift on export or an anti dumping duty is a trigger. (this is just an add on positive which can happen but not major one)
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Ammonia prices have been rising and rising ammonia price = rising TAN realization. Based on Q2 ammonia price shared by the company(current might be even higher) they are saving 90cr to 110cr at EBITA level on a quarterly basis.
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TAN volumes are extremely strong plus the company took 260cr of one time impact on their inventory on fertilizer segment because of subsidy reduction by GOI.
So they had ammonia price hitting all time low 2months back, TAN realization very low, subsidy impact from fertilizer segment, incremental depreciation from new ammonia plan started last quarter + incremental interest cost + interests rate pretty high + they also took a one time loss of 80cr in Q2 for plant stabilization (Everything has gone wrong for them in last few quarters)
Despite this they are showing strong support and I see lot of triggers going forward. My detailed post on them is here Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals - #252 by manhar
H2 I am expecting things to improve drastically especially from Q4 onwards, I see 50% to 70% upside in next 5 to 6 months conservatively
Disc- invested, avg 650, can be wrong and will exit if things go wrong
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